This market will resolve to YES if: 
After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, 
the selected replacement has taken power, and
the individual selected identifies as female.

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm

This market runs in 2 stages. When you complete a stage, you go to the next stage. When you complete the last stage, the market resolves to YES. If the time runs out, the market resolves NO
1. The probability must stay below 24.5% for a total of 12 hours.
2. The probability must stay at or above 50.5% for a total of 12 hours.
This is almost an exact duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-the-implied-probability-of-thi-478efb9a7eed, which I accidentally resolved early.

This market will resolve to YES if $31,415 or more is invested into this market by 3:14 am EST on March 14th, 2022 - also known as 'Pi Day'.

Feb 24, 5:55pm: Forgot to specify - the market will resolve YES if the pool size reaches $31,415 at any point before/at 3:14am on March 14th.

Resolved according to https://www.cold-takes.com/bet-with-zvi-about-omicron/
Dates are inclusive.
#ZviOnOmicron #Omicron

To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338).

There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be at least as deadly as 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

Mar 2, 2:19pm: Waiting for official confirmation to resolve

town biden

Honourary

TheSkeward

Ben Rog-Wilhelm

Faul Sname

Zygohistomorphic

marthinwurer

blank

I am the current administrator of this Discord server. I will choose the answer based on which user currently has the 'Administrator' role or has been officially announced as the successor, not based on the precise permission scheme - ie, if an administration bot had Administrator access, this would not factor into my choice, and if I still held the server owner status during a probationary period after I'd announced and handed the role over to another user, I would choose that user.

This market resolves to YES if in my judgement, a market's existence, question, description, trades, comments, tags, probability, resolution, the identities of those participating in the market, information revealed in any of the above, etc, leads to social drama sometime this year. Discourse that does not pertain to anyone's personal lives does not count as social drama. I mostly hang out on Discord but do also occasionally hear about stuff that happens on Facebook, Twitter, tumblr, and in real life.

This question is prompted by the ongoing speculation / observations in the news that the world is now entering into a hegemony between the United States and China.

* The talk must be with Xi Xinping or an appointed high level delegate and at least 5 NATO leaders from any of the NATO countries.
* Putin may have a stand-in such as Sergey Lavrov or other recognizable Russian leader, but the name must be recognizable and can't be some low level person talking with other low level people, they must be whatever the equivalent to Russian cabinet members would be.
* Same goes for NATO, preferably the leaders would be top level officials such as Boris Johnson, Joe Biden, etc., however whatever a given country's equivalent to Vice President, Secretary of State or otherwise would be acceptable.

If this ends up being a meeting of direct world leaders, this will resolve to YES. If this ends up being a bunch of cabinet members talking to each other, it may resolve to a high probability such as 75%.  If a fake looking meeting between celebrities such as Sean Penn, Bono, other NATO celebrities and the members of t.A.T.u. happens it will resolve to 1%, and scale up in importance from there. If no meeting happens it will resolve to NO.

Mar 3, 7:10am: > if all of these parties meet but the event is not formally chaired/mediated by China, will this resolve negatively?

If this happens, China must absolutely be involved, but I will resolve to a PROB.

Mar 3, 7:10am: > Depends on how they define "5 NATO leaders". Seems very unlikely unless you really expand what "NATO leader" means.

See my above description, resolves to a PROB as we go down in importance. Top cabinet-level leaders qualify, e.g. Vice President, Vice-Whatever, Secretary of State or Equivalent, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, etc. However if it's that high-level cabinet member's intern meeting with an intern, that does not qualify.

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