The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.
Will the implied probability of this question stay below 25% for at least 12 hours and then stay above 50% for at least 12 hours?
Will this market have at least M$31,415 invested into it by Pi Day (March 14th)?
Will this market have M$20,000 invested by March 11th?
Will at least 75% of the USA COVID-19 cases between 1/1/22 and 2/28/23 occur between 1/1/22 and 2/28/22?
Will more than 5,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?
Martial law in Russia before March 7th?
Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022
Who will be the administrator of the AstralCodexTen Discord server on January 1, 2023?
Will the current Russia/Ukraine peace talks result in peace?
A market on Manifold Markets will be a key point in some sort of significant social drama in 2022
Will Russia ban men of military age from leaving Russia by 6 March, 2022
Communal Chess Game! Will White Win?
Explain market math geometrically.
Xi Jinping will successfully mediate a talk between Vladimir Puti and at least 5 NATO leaders by March 15th, 2022.
Will Chirag do a backflip by 2022-03-04T23:59:59?
Will there be a Pi variant of COVID by Pi Day (March 14, 2022)?
Suggest features.
Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 5th Pacific Time?
Will a nuclear bomb detonate by April 1st 2022?
Will Russia close their borders before March 11th?
Will there be over 200 Ukrainian Military deaths by the end of March 2022
Will this market have at least M$62,831 invested into it by Tau Day (June 28th)?
Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?
Will there be a nuclear disaster like Chernobyl in 2022?
Will martial law be declared in Russia by April 1st?
Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
Will China Invade Taiwan in 2022?
Will the US open its borders to Ukrainian citizens before July 1st 2022?
Will I release a substantive web3 (crypto) game in 30 days?
Will any nuclear facility, either power generation, disposal or Chernobyl exclusion zone within Ukraine cause any danger to the public in the next couple months?
Will BA.2 make up greater than 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases by April 2, according to the CDC?
Will Vladimir Putin be removed from Power in 2022?
Will I have lost twenty or more pounds by Apr. 24, 2022?
Will Russia close its borders to prevent its citizens from leaving?
Which market will make me the most M$?
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Will the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022?
Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?
Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?
Will Norway will win the most medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics?
Will Mantic Markets have over $1M in revenue by 2023?
Will I become significantly more mellow by the end of the year?
Will Putin be the leader of Russia during the entire 2022?
Honourary resolves honorably.
Will at least one nuclear strike hit a city with 100000+ population in February or March 2022?
Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before April 20th Eastern Time?
Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?
Within the rules of Magic: The Gathering, can Magmaquake kill Mistmeadow Skulk?
If we monetize by selling Mantic Dollars for real money, will it work well enough that we keep it for at least a couple months?
89. Will Manifold Markets still be alive and active by the end of 2022?
Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.005 by March 25?
Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next year?
We are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that
Will any country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?
Will I succeed at repairing this pair of eyeglass frames to the owners' satisfaction?
Will the US attack Russia domestically by July 1st 2022?
What was the final result of the die roll in the linked video?
Will Russia formally declare war on ukariane in March 2022?
Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 5 years?
Will the Worldometers Covid counter register 1,000,000 US deaths before March 15?
Will the upcoming first games of the 9th generation of Pokémon include more than 112 new species, not counting any possible DLCs?
Will this market have at least M$ 5,000 invested AND PROB below 80% at close?
Will the USA still require a negative Covid test for travelers entering via air from Canada on March 31st?
Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?
Will Volodymyr Zelensky remain President of Ukraine by 2023?
Will the USA have a female president in 2022?
Will I get a Covid test before March 10th?
Will any other country openly join Russia - Ukraine conflict in March or April 2022?
Will Russia control the majority of the Ukraine by January 1st, 2023?
Will NATO invoke Article 5 by April 15th?
Does P = NP?
Will Russia be suspended from SWIFT by March 15, 2022?
This resolves to the direction of highest bet that has a comment.
#Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta
What should we call the digital currency used to bet on Manifold Markets
Will my upcoming post "What Are We Arguing About When We Argue About Rationality?" get more than 100 Substack likes?
Will Manifold launch a crypto token before April?
Will it be confirmed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy was killed or captured by Russian military forces before March 20th Eastern Time?
Will mathlib have formal proofs of 70 out of 100 theorems from Freek Wiedijk's list before July?
Will ARKK, a speculative innovation ETF, outperform S&P500 over the next 3 years?
Will I be pregnant before I turn 34?
Will Brad Raffensperger win the Republican primary for Secretary of State in Georgia?
Will Putin be overthrown during 2022?
Are Plaid ACH transfers out of beta?
Will a US city be nuked by the end of the year?
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be greater than or equal to 40% on March 13th, 2022, 11:59 GMT?
Will Solana have a higher market cap than Ethereum before the end of 2022?
How much will be pledged to the "A Year of Sanderson" Kickstarter?
Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
Will a major/Triple-A game engine support "geometric algebra" operations out-of-the-box by January 2026?
Will this market have M$10,000 invested by March 10th?
Will my upcoming post "Microaddictions" get more than 100 Substack likes?
Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?
Will Manifold's New Automatic Loan on First $M 20 Create Inflation in $M?
Putin still president on June 1, 2024. Note that the 2024 Russia Presidential election is scheduled for March 17 and the inauguration for May 7.
Will I read 50 books in 2022?
Will there be more than one fatal shark attack in the United States in 2022?
Baker Mayfield will be on the roster of an NFC North team in the NFL week 1 in 2022
